To support us with a donation? Click here!Dialogue China BriefingTalking About China NowIssue 125 – February 15, 2023In This IssueThe articles shared here do not necessarily reflect the views of the briefing or Dialogue China. All articles sourced from WeChat public accounts unless otherwise noted.I. Dialogue China Viewpoints1. The Most Important Things to Observe in 2023II. Policy2. More than Two Billion Passenger Trips Were Taken for Chinese New Year, Are Villages and Townships Ready for the Pandemic?3. China’s Demographic Crisis has Arrived, Population Building Must Be Pursued With No DelayIII. Politics4. Is China’s Growing Strength Toughening Its Young People? Evidence of Chinese Youth’s Attitudes Toward the United States and JapanIV. Finance and Business5. What Signal Does it Send that Jack Ma No Longer Controls Ant Group?6. The Most Difficult Autumn Recruiting Season Ever, How Hard Do New Graduates Have to Work to Get a Job Offer?Dialogue China Viewpoints1. The Most Important Things to Observe in 2023Wang Dan – Radio Free Asia Commentary – February 15, 20232023 is well underway. After a year full of contradictions, disappointments and hopes in 2022, what are the most important things we need to observe about China in the new year? I would like to share my personal views with you. For me, the first thing to watch in China in 2023 is the development of the economy. At the end of last year, Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party suddenly threw caution to the wind and lifted all pandemic controls. The main reason was that economic production was greatly damaged by the zero COVID policy. After three years of pandemic lockdown, China’s economic development – which had already been in a state of decline – was facing disaster. In 2023, once pandemic controls are fully lifted, it is certain that China’s economy will rebound, but it is uncertain whether it will be able to return to normal economic trends or even maintain a growth rate of more than 3 – 5 percent. The fate of the Chinese Communist Party – which relies heavily on economic development as the foundation of its rule – will largely depend on whether the Chinese economy can be resuscitated in 2023. Second, in March 2023 the Chinese Communist Party will hold its annual “Two Sessions”* – meetings of the National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Although these will be rubber stamp meetings, and the personnel arrangements for the new national leadership will have been decided in advance, the personnel layout of the two sessions is still worthy of our attention. There is no doubt that Xi Jinping has already made arrangements for those he considers to be the most loyal to him to occupy the various power structures, and that the so-called “loyalty” is superficial and unreliable. Even though Xi Jinping seemed to have all the power at last year’s 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, there is a question mark over whether this network of power is secure. Who will be the decision makers and executors of the executive system in the next five years? How well will they be able to handle the challenges they face? In the event of a major crisis, will they be fully committed to defending Xi Jinping’s positions? All of this is worth observing. After all, China has entered a highly unstable period of development, and apart from the influence of Xi Jinping’s personal will on China, whether his policies will be carried out will also be crucial in determining China’s future political stability. * The term “Two Sessions” refers to the annual plenary meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which are China’s top legislature and top political advisory body respectively. Third, the Taiwan issue is also critical to observe. This also divides into two levels: Taiwan’s presidential election and United States – China relations. The year 2023 will see Taiwan’s presidential election campaign, and its outcome will have a significant impact on cross-strait relations. At present, neither the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – which hopes to stay in power – nor the Kuomintang (KMT) – which is preparing to return to power – is sure that they will get what they want. Although the election results will not be revealed until 2024, the development of the 2023 election campaign will largely determine the outcome of the election. This election will be critical to the future fate of Taiwan, and its outcome will also affect the Communist Party’s short-term policy on the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwan issue is the most important issue in United States – China relations, and the trial of strength between the two powers in 2023 is more likely to be manifested in the Taiwan issue. In particular, the actions on Taiwan of the Republican-led United States House of Representatives on – including whether Speaker McCarthy will visit Taiwan and the possible consequences – will be a major issue affecting China in 2023. Fourth, although the pandemic has passed, the various social problems that have accumulated over the past three years of pandemic lockdowns – including the widespread discontent at all levels of society that has occurred – will be exposed after the pandemic prevention measures are lifted. What problems will be exposed? In what manner will these problems manifest themselves? How will the Communist Party respond to the new tensions between the state and society? How has the Communist Party prepared to deal with the likely recurrence of the pandemic? Will the discontent with Xi Jinping within the Communist Party and society fester further, or will it gradually die down? These questions all have critical influence on the stability of Chinese society and deserve close observation. Lastly, China today has already entered a period of high uncertainty, where anything can happen but nothing is certain. And it can be confirmed that the probability of emergencies will be higher than in the past. The above mentioned aspects are worth observing and may foreshadow the occurrence of unexpected events.【Back to Top】Policy2. More than Two Billion Passenger Trips Were Taken for Chinese New Year, Are Villages and Townships Ready for the Pandemic?Wei Cuicui – Southern Weekend – January 7, 2023Why Read This? China’s 2023 Spring Festival began on January 7. This year, the total passenger flow is expected to be 2.095 billion, an increase of 99.5% year on year. The massive movement of people brought by the Spring Festival may bring a new peak of COVID infection everywhere. But in fact, the local Spring Festival started earlier than a month ago. Many universities are on winter break early, evacuating students to return home. In addition, there are also some workers in the outbreak area to return home early. As a result, the rate of new coronavirus infections around the world is faster than previously predicted by experts.（Read the full text） 【Back to top】Policy3. China’s Demographic Crisis has Arrived, Population Building Must Be Pursued With No DelayLi Jianxin – Southern Metropolis Observer – January 17, 2023Why Read This? On January 17, 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released economic data for the year 2022, which showed that the country’s population decreased by 850,000 people from the end of the previous year. This is the first time since 1949, except for 1960 and 1961, that China has experienced negative trend population growth. The population decline itself is not unexpected, as researchers and the media have been predicting it in recent years, but few expected it to come so soon. What does the early arrival of this turn of events mean? How should we deal with it?（Read the full text） 【Back to top】Politics4. Is China’s Growing Strength Toughening Its Young People? Evidence of Chinese Youth’s Attitudes Toward the United States and JapanPang Qin, et al. – Contemporary China – January 5, 2023Why Read This? Changes in relative power between emerging and dominant countries have been identified as a key factor in international conflict because they may lead to perceptions of threat between the two societies. This study examines three questions through a large-scale survey of Chinese elite youths’ attitudes toward the United States and Japan. The findings suggest that as China’s relative strength increases, young Chinese may not be as eager as commonly believed for China to challenge the status quo. In addition, the findings challenge the common assumption that “China’s growing power has fostered a generation of Chinese youth who consistently support a more assertive foreign policy.”（Read the full text） 【Back to top】Finance and Business5. What Signal Does it Send that Jack Ma No Longer Controls Ant Group?Xie Jiu – Sanlian Life Weekly – January 10, 2023Why Read This? In the more than two years since the suspension of its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in 2020, Jack Ma Yun has recently ceased to be the de facto controller of Ant Group. But the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2022 proposed that “we should vigorously develop the digital economy, improve the level of normalization of supervision, and support platform enterprises in leading development, creating jobs and display our skills to the fullest in competing internationally.” For Internet platforms such as Ant Group, this means that the severe winter period at the policy level has passed. However, if we strictly follow the regulations (the requirement for the board is “no change in the actual controller in the last two years”), Ant Group cannot be publicly listed for the next two years. No one knows what kind of variables and surprises will happen in the next two years.（Read the full text） 【Back to top】Finance and Business6. The Most Difficult Autumn Recruiting Season Ever, How Hard Do New Graduates Have to Work to Get a Job Offer?Chen Nan – Sanlian Life Weekly – January 6, 2023Why Read This? Recently, the Ministry of Education announced the number of new graduates in 2023, an estimated 11.58 million, a year on year increase of 820,000. But there is another set of data, according to Tech Planet, a major Internet factory headquarters filled as many as 8,000 positions last year, but this year it dropped to 3,000 +, almost a new low in scale in the past five years. The autumn recruitment is a key deadline for many new graduates to finalize their jobs. But in the autumn recruitment period in 2022 – in the five month long recruitment period from July to December – many students experienced résumé submission, written tests, round after round of interviews, and even violation of contracts.（Read the full text） 【Back to top】

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