To support us with a donation? Click here!Dialogue China BriefingTalking About China NowIssue 124 – February 1, 2023In This IssueThe articles shared here do not necessarily reflect the views of the briefing or Dialogue China. All articles sourced from WeChat public accounts unless otherwise noted.I. Dialogue China Viewpoints1. China in 2022: Four Far Reaching, Significant EventsII. Policy2. The Causes, Status, and Structure of Digital Poverty among Rural Residents in China3. The World and the Country are Changing Rapidly, Calling for the Introduction of a Universal Basic Income Solution for China4. What is the Situation in a Fully Loaded Hospital as China’s Post Lockdown Critical Care Peak Approaches?III. Politics5. Two Charter Flights from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Taiwan Reflect the Cruelest and Coldest Metaphor of the Next 30 YearsIV. Finance and Business6. What Are the Challenges Ahead for China’s Economy to Open Up After the Unlocking?Dialogue China Viewpoints1. China in 2022: Four Far Reaching, Significant EventsWang Dan – Radio Free Asia Commentary – January 1, 2023As the year 2022 comes to a close, looking back on the year, so much significant has transpired in China. But there are four events that I think will have a profound and far reaching impact on China’s development in the next five to ten years, and they are worth summarizing.   The first thing is that we can see through the handling of pandemic prevention that the Chinese Communist Party’s ability to govern the country has declined significantly. In the face of the pandemic, the Chinese Communist Party has either violently and unreasonably imposed forced lockdowns, resulting in huge losses in people’s lives, or it has irresponsibly lifted the lockdowns, leaving people to fend for themselves without a basic medical aid system and without a prepared medical structure. This has resulted in a humanitarian disaster even worse than the pandemic. Such an action in the face of a natural disaster reflects the low capacity of the Chinese Communist Party to handle crises. This was already an existing reality, but it has been thoroughly exposed in the 2022 pandemic response.   The second thing is that Xi Jinping has become the public enemy of all. When Xi Jinping first took over the reins of power in 2012, many people had high expectations of him out of respect for his father, Xi Zhongxun, and hoped that he would carry out political reforms. But from wolf warrior diplomacy to “the state enterprises advance, the private sectors retreat*,” from Xi’s self dictated extension of his term as Communist Party leader to the “dynamic zero COVID” policy, Xi Jinping has come all the way to today. His ability to govern and his dictatorial nature have triggered the discontent of the whole nation. The White Paper Revolution, which called for the “Overthrow of Xi Jinping,” is very representative of the nation’s discontent. Such discontent is not only within the Chinese Communist Party, but is also a national consensus. People just do not say it out loud. But there are hardly any people who still respect and harbor hope for Xi Jinping. If such an utterly isolated leader continues to rule China for at least five more years, the consequences are too dreadful to contemplate. *Guo jin min tui (国进民退) is an alleged phenomenon in the Chinese economy, meaning “the state enterprises advance, the private sectors retreat.” Despite being less profitable – the average return on equity is 4% – state owned enterprises have easier access to funding than purely private enterprises. The government has encouraged state owned enterprises to consolidate, favored them in regulation, and awarded them contracts and subsidies; this crowds out other competitors, both domestic and foreign, undermining the economy. This contrasts with an earlier phase of economic liberalization in China, where the private sector was seen as flourishing and generating growth; in the late 1990s, Zhu Rongji weeded out some of the weaker state-owned enterprises. The third event was the White Paper Revolution that broke out on November 26, 2022. This protest movement was ostensibly in support of a change in the pandemic prevention policy, but the significance behind it was that it represented the beginning of an era of people’s resistance and the beginning of a new confrontation between the state and society. After the June 4, 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre the Chinese Communist Party through various means made a silent contract with the Chinese people that the people would submit to the Communist Party’s rule as long as the Communist Party could develop the economy. But a series of malign developments, such as the extreme Shanghai city lockdown, the Xuzhou iron chained woman incident*, and the Tangshan restaurant beating of women by drunken men**, have broken the tacit agreement between the state and society. It may be a time of despair, but it may also be a time of hope for the people. * The Xuzhou chained woman incident (徐州铁链女事件), also known as the Xuzhou eight-child mother incident (徐州八孩母亲事件), is a case of human trafficking, false imprisonment, sexual assault, severe mistreatment, and subsequent events that came to light in late January 2022 in Feng County, Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, China. The video of a mentally disturbed and unlawfully imprisoned woman who was chained to a wall and who gave birth to eight children went viral on China’s internet and sparked a huge public outcry. ** On June 10, 2022, a group of men assaulted four women at a barbecue restaurant in Lubei District, Tangshan. Before dawn, a drunk man named Chen Jizhi (陈继志) began to sexually harass a woman. When the act was met with resistance, Chen Jizhi became angry and along with several of his companions, violently assaulted the four women. The surveillance footage was circulated on the Internet soon after the incident, causing extensive discussions on multiple social media platforms. People’s Daily said it was not only a crime, but also challenged the public’s sense of security. At the same time, it also sparked discussion about women’s rights in China. After the incident was uploaded on the Internet, there were several real-name reports of Tangshan-related gangs, which also received some attention. On June 10, two suspects were arrested and all nine suspects were arrested the following day.   The fourth thing is that the middle class, as a social class, has collectively broken with the ruling clique. So far, they are still voting with their feet, with large numbers of the middle class emigrating overseas, from Singapore to Thailand to the United States to Europe, and the massive increase in the number of Chinese emigrants reflects the pessimism and loss of hope for the future of the Chinese middle class. For a long time, the middle class in China has relied on the political environment of the Communist dictatorship to exchange benefits to smoothly and steadily amass a fortune. But now, with the irrevocable decline of the economy, the state has made a 180 degree turn and wants to deprive the middle class of their wealth in the name of so-called “common prosperity,” which is actually a robbery of their wealth. This has forced the middle class to wake up. For those middle class people who cannot “liquidate” their wealth and flee from China, they will come to realize that without a good social and political environment, not only will their wealth accumulation not continue, but also the wealth they have already created will not be safe. The awakening of the middle class will be one of the key drivers of change in China in the next five to ten years.   In the short year of 2022, so many things have happened that, even though they are ostensibly in the past, they will have an impact on the development of Chinese society, on the collective perception of the Chinese people, and on the future foundation of the Communist Party’s rule. We will see how these influences will change the reality in the next five to ten years.【Back to Top】Policy2. The Causes, Status and Structure of Digital Poverty among Rural Residents in ChinaSun Xiaoning, Zhen Jinhui – Qualitative Research – November 11, 2022Why Read This? What is the situation of farmers’ use of digital products in the information age? Why is it called a new kind of poverty? Is it similar to the familiar concept of “new illiteracy”? If not, what are the meanings and manifestations of “poverty”? This paper focuses on the causes, status and relational structure of digital poverty among rural residents in the context of ‘Digital China,” with a sample of 50 rural residents from five counties in Jinzhong City, Shanxi Province, China.（Read the full text） 【Back to top】Policy3. The World and the Country are Changing Rapidly, Calling for the Introduction of a Universal Basic Income Solution for ChinaZhai Dongsheng – Beijing Cultural Review – November 26, 2022Why Read This? China’s economy is now facing profound challenges: on the one hand, the long-term impact of the epidemic on the middle and low-end service industries has limited the wealth redistribution function of non-tradable goods and damaged the income and consumption of a large number of people; on the other hand, the demographic structure of fewer children, aging, and the booming digital economy have brought a huge impact on economic growth and social equity. Whether it is to stimulate economic recovery in the short term or to manage the relationship between efficiency and equity under the conditions of rapid technological progress and the perpetuation of the new epidemic, as well as to maintain the original social solidarity, it is necessary to expand other means of redistribution to maintain and regulate a reasonable pattern of income distribution（Read the full text） 【Back to top】Policy4. What is the Situation in a Fully Loaded Hospital as China’s Post Lockdown Critical Care Peak Approaches?Wei Qing – Sanlian Life Weekly – December 25, 2022Why Read This? On December 7, 2022, two weeks after the State Council’s “Notice on Further Optimizing the Implementation of Measures to Prevent and Control the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic” was released, we contacted Dr. Li, director of the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine at Wuhan Sixth Hospital, three times. On December 24, he participated in the emergency rescue of critically ill patients until the early hours of the morning. This article is a compilation of three interviews.（Read the full text） 【Back to top】Politics5. Two Charter Flights from Jiangsu/Zhejiang and Taiwan Reflect the Cruelest and Coldest Metaphor of the Next 30 YearsJia Yun, et al. – Center for the Study of Longevity – December 11, 2022Why Read This? In late 2022, when the epidemic prevention policy was being adjusted, many governments in southeastern China organized charter flights out of the country for companies to grab orders, which became a hot topic for a while. However, a charter flight in another direction has received less public attention: the recent charter flight of TSMC engineers to Arizona, driven by the United States, was seen as a landmark step in the manufacturing industry’s return to the United States. The two different charter routes convey the same metaphor: a new era of competition has begun, in which the most fundamental competition is destined to be the struggle for development and initiative among countries around the world around technological innovation and industry shaping.（Read the full text） 【Back to top】Finance and Business6. What Are the Challenges Ahead for China’s Economy to Open Up After the Unlocking?Xu Zhun – Beijing Cultural Review – December 22, 2022Why Read This? The “Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035)” recently published by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council clearly points out that China’s development must be led by domestic demand, which is a realistic need for people’s lives, a necessity for the economy of a large country, and a requirement of the profound changes in the international environment. However, what exactly is “domestic demand”? Domestic demand can rely on what to pull? With the gradual opening around the construction of a large domestic cycle as the main, domestic and international dual cycle of mutual promotion of the new development pattern, what other restrictions and challenges?（Read the full text） 【Back to top】

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