|To support us with a donation? Click here!Dialogue China BriefingTalking About China NowIssue 116 – September 15, 2022In This IssueThe articles shared here do not necessarily reflect the views of the briefing or Dialogue China. All articles sourced from WeChat public accounts unless otherwise noted.I. Dialogue China Opinions1. The Reasons Taiwanese Are Not Afraid of Chinese Military ExercisesII. Policy2. How Tight is the Chinese Government’s Local Finance Now?3. Land Finance is Facing an Inflection Point, to Prevent a Hard Landing of China’s EconomyIII. Politics4. Why is Beijing Stirring up an Anti Corruption Storm in the Chip Ring?IV. Finance and Business5. What Will Happen to China’s Property Market When Real Estate Companies Start to Withdraw from Land?6. China’s Real Estate Cannot Go on Like ThisDialogue China Statement on|
The Establishment of Asia HeadquartersOn June 4th, 2018, Dialogue China was established as one of the first think tanks by Chinese overseas oppositions. Our mission is to dialogue with different parties, on issues of China’s Future.
Therefore, we hope that China, in the future, would hold dialogues with Taiwan on our future developments, based on equality, mutual respect, and democracy.
As the director and the founder of Dialogue China, I am pleased to announce that: Like many other establishments, Dialogue China has instituted our Asia headquarters in Taiwan, with approval from the Ministry of the Interior. I will personally oversee the work at our Asia HQ.
In response to shifting environments, Dialogue China will operate with dual headquarters in both Taipei and Washington D.C.. While we continue our operations in the United States, we will also expand our focus onto building bridges throughout Taiwan and other Asian democratic societies. We are currently also looking at expanding our operations to Korea and Japan in the future.
We are looking forward to collaborating with other Asian’s free societies and organizations. Together, we will strive to end the tyranny of the Chinese Communist Party, and hope to help China establish new political orders. We very much appreciate your support.【Back to Top】Dialogue China Opinions1. The Reasons Taiwanese Are Not Afraid of Chinese Military ExercisesWang Dan – Radio Free Asia Commentary – August 18, 2022The visit of United States House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan was seen by the Chinese Communist Party as an action that crossed a red line. In retaliation, the Chinese Communist Party held unprecedented large scale military exercises, not only crossing the traditional Taiwan Strait median line with military aircraft and naval vessels, but also launching missiles flying over Taiwan. The force of military intimidation is unprecedented in the eyes of the outside world, and the international media have described it as the “Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.”
The purpose of the Chinese Communist Party’s military action was, of course, to intimidate the Taiwanese people in the hope of putting pressure on the Taiwanese government in an attempt to prevent further expansion of Taiwan’s contacts with the international community. But the military exercise completely failed in this objective. The Taiwanese people were not intimidated by the aggressive military action at all. I arrived in Taiwan on the day Speaker Pelosi left, and through various means before and after quarantine I was able to survey the reactions of my Taiwanese friends to the crisis. My observation is there was absolutely no panic among the Taiwanese people and society, and even the Taiwan stock market was not alarmed. Why are the people of Taiwan so calm and unafraid in the face of the Chinese Communist armed forces approaching their doorstep? I think there are several reasons:
The first reason is that, since the retreat of the Kuomintang to Taiwan 73 years ago, the Chinese Communist Party has never stopped threatening Taiwan with military force. The people of Taiwan have become so accustomed to living under such intimidation that they have become insensitive to it. In contrast to the claim of aesthetic fatigue, the Taiwanese people have a kind of “ugly fatigue” and are no longer interested in “repulsive” things like military threats. In this regard, the people of South Korea, who have been living under the threat of nuclear attack from North Korea for a long time, can be said to suffer similar distress.
Second, in democratic societies like Taiwan, where information networks are well developed and flow freely, average people’s level of awareness of major political issues is continuously increasing. Although the Chinese Communist Party is behaving in a threatening manner, most Taiwanese people through various consultation channels are able to make accurate judgments. The majority of Taiwanese people are well aware of the current situation in the Taiwan Strait. Although the Chinese Communist Party is increasingly aggressive, it does not have the military strength to successfully invade Taiwan in the near future. This, coupled with the Taiwanese people’s general confidence in the support of the United States and other Western countries, is the reason for their indifference to PRC threats.
Third, the attitude of the public is also influenced, to some extent, by the attitude of the government. The response of the Taiwanese government to the Chinese military exercises was very calm and reasonable. Not only did they not panic, they did not mobilize society. Even the overflight of PRC missiles violating Taiwan’s territorial airspace did not trigger an alert. The calmness with which the Taiwan government handled the crisis gave the Taiwanese people more confidence.
Lastly, and I think most importantly, is that China’s continuously increasing military threats have had adverse unforeseen consequences. In response to my question: “Why are you not afraid?” several ordinary Taiwanese friends replied: “As long as we are not willing to unify, the Communist Party will definitely attack us. If we are afraid or unafraid, either way they will attack us. So what use is there in being afraid?” I think this is the most important point because usually military intimidation works by giving the other side a choice; when the other side feels that there is an alternative to war, their fear of war will emerge. However, if the opponent is cornered and has no way to retreat, the military threat will only have the opposite effect and stimulate the will to resist. This is the truth of the old saying “even a rabbit will bite if it feels threatened.”
Since Xi Jinping assumed leadership of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012, his policy towards Taiwan has become increasingly hard line. The “1992 Consensus*” has become “one country, two systems,” which is a system absolutely unacceptable to the people of Taiwan. Under such circumstances, the Chinese Communist Party has abandoned its policy of “winning the hearts and minds of the people of Taiwan” and is clamoring internationally that it wants to send the people of Taiwan to “re-education camps.” Such a barbaric attitude is tantamount to pushing Taiwan into a dead end. This policy will not only fail to achieve the purpose of overwhelming the self determined collective will of Taiwan, but will also make the Taiwanese more resentful and psychologically reject China. It can be said that the failure of the military exercises to scare the Taiwanese is entirely due to the stupidity of the Chinese Communist Party.
* The 1992 Consensus [九二共識] is a political term referring to the alleged outcome of a meeting in 1992 between the semiofficial representatives of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC) of Taiwan. They are often credited as creating a diplomatic basis for semi-official cross-strait exchanges which began in the early 1990s and is a precondition set by the PRC for engaging in cross-strait dialogue. Whether the meetings truly resulted in a consensus is under dispute in the ROC. The Kuomintang (KMT) understanding of the consensus is “one China, different interpretations””(一中各表, 一個中國各自表述), i.e. that the ROC and PRC agree that there is one China, but disagree about what “China” means (i.e. ROC vs. PRC). The PRC’s position is that there is one China (including Taiwan), of which PRC is the sole legitimate representative. This discrepancy has been criticized by Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party that is now in power, and by others. Critics have also pointed out that the term was not created contemporaneously within the timeframe of the meeting: the term was coined in April 2000 by former Taiwan National Security Council secretary-general Su Chi, eight years after the 1992 meetings. The President of ROC in 1992, Lee Teng-hui, denied the existence of the 1992 Consensus. The 1992 Consensus was rejected by the current president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, who associated it with one country, two systems in a 2019 speech.【Back to Top】Policy2. How Tight is the Chinese Government’s Local Finance Now?Zhang Mingyang – Glacier Thinking Number One – August 15, 2022Why Read This?
On August 12, 2022, Henan Province’s Dancheng Bus Company issued a notice stating that due to operational difficulties, driver wages were not paid for several months in a row, causing all city buses to stop running. In a public outcry, the notice was deleted, and the next day a notice of resumption of operations was issued. Public opinion is so concerned about this matter, certainly not because of people’s livelihood, many local people said, Dancheng County is not big, there is no public transport is actually not relevant. That reason is only one, worry about the strapped local finances.（Read the full text）
【Back to top】Policy3. Land Finance is Facing an Inflection Point, to Prevent a Hard Landing of China’s EconomyWang Xiaolu – Sound of Wind Opinion – August 16, 2022Why Read This?
In the first half of 2022, the country’s state-owned land transfer revenue was RMB 2.36 trillion, down 31% from a year earlier. Such a significant drop in land transfer revenue is not a short-term fluctuation, but likely represents a fundamental turning point in the land and real estate markets. It is only because of the poor economic situation this year that the demand for land has become more prominent. This article provides a clear overview of the history of land finance in China.（Read the full text）
【Back to top】Politics4. Why is Beijing Stirring up an Anti Corruption Storm in the Chip Ring?Xiao Xiang – Xiao Xiang Plan and Operate – August 6, 2022Why Read This?
Recently, the domestic chip industry has been in the midst of an anti-corruption storm that has attracted a lot of attention. The eye of the anti-corruption storm is the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (NICIF), which is often referred to in the media these days as the “National Fund”. The high rank and number of people involved in this microchip anti-corruption storm is far beyond the imagination of the outside world. The timing of this exceptionally determined and vigorous anti-corruption storm in the chip industry is delicate and highlights the determination of the top management to break through in the chip industry. The national will to make the chip industry bigger and stronger must be carried out. But in the end, China cannot afford to wait and delay in this century-old technological competition.（Read the full text）
【Back to top】Finance and Business5. What Will Happen to China’s Property Market When Real Estate Companies Start to Withdraw from Land?Xie Jiu – Sanlian Life Weekly – August 11, 2022Why Read This?
Recently, Evergrande announced that it would return the land use right of Guangzhou Evergrande Football Stadium at a price of 5.52 billion yuan. Not only Evergrande, but also many other developers have been taking the initiative to surrender their land in the past year or so. The rules of the game in China’s property market are changing profoundly, and every aspect of China’s economy will be rewritten as a result. In particular, the current Chinese economy is facing external pressure, including the United States just passed the chip bill, can lead China’s economic breakthrough, is definitely not real estate, but high-end manufacturing and other solid industries.（Read the full text）
【Back to top】Finance and Business6. China’s Real Estate Cannot Go on Like ThisZhou Chaochen – Tiger Scent App – August 14, 2022Why Read This?
Starting with Evergrande, the past year, the real estate companies have been seen in the lightning is not strange. The debt defaults, commercial paper overdue, are not uncommon. Including Evergrande, there should be no real estate companies want to burst the mine. There are also real estate companies that seem to have given up struggling. For example, the Dragon Light Group, which operates in the residential and office real estate industry in mainland China, recently announced a one-time default on the interest due on five senior notes. A property in Nanjing offered “watermelon for house up to 100,000,” 10 yuan/catty to acquire watermelon to offset the house payment. The next one is Wuxi “peach for house.” Lianyungang has a real estate “buy a house to send a 200 pounds of pig” marketing activities. In my lifetime, I saw the old barter transaction method, so people mistakenly thought they had traveled back in time!（Read the full text）
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