Editorial
1. How to Deal With the Indo-Pacific Situation?
Wang Dan – Radio Free Asia Op-Ed – May 17, 2021
In recent years, the focus of international politics has gradually shifted from Europe and the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region. China’s expansion and military maneuvers in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait have raised the vigilance of the Asia-Pacific countries. The major countries in the Asia-Pacific region – led by Australia, Japan and India – have begun to carry out comprehensive cooperation and alliances. At the urging of the United States, Europe can also send naval vessels into the Asia-Pacific region to show the unity of Western countries. However, in the face of the backlash of the regional and international community, the Chinese Communist Party has not only failed to restrain itself, but also believes that its national strength is great enough to confront the United States-led allies, and its willingness and readiness to prepare for war are becoming increasingly evident.
What should the Asia-Pacific countries do to counteract such a critical development? Australian senior intelligence officer Rory Medcalf – in his new book “Contest for the Indo-Pacific: Why China Won’t Map the Future” – makes four points that I think are pertinent, practical and worthy of attention.
First, the author argues that one of the focal points in preparing for a deteriorating situation is to prepare for rainy days, and that the focus should be on “capacity building.” Japan and Australia are now helping to train other countries’ coastal defense forces, and providing vessels, maritime surveillance, and communications equipment to partner countries, from Vietnam to Indonesia, and from the Solomon Islands to Sri Lanka, as examples of such regional cooperation to strengthen all these countries’ defenses.
Secondly, the author believes that no matter how much Japan, India, and Australia have awakened and started to prepare for war, the support of the United States is still the most important factor. He argues that the United States and all countries that support balance in military strength must build an advantage in traditional military power, as well as in future technological and regional economic resilience. They need to bolster their ability to both resist pressure and to exert it. They need to restore two forms of deterrent power: the ability to not allow the enemy to make gains, and to fight back. This will involve both maintaining military modernization, and investing in new tools of warfare such as networks, artificial intelligence, space, new materials, robots, advanced computing and other modernization efforts. As China continues to increase its military strength, the United States must invest more in this area as well.
Thirdly, the author calls for frequent dialogue among countries in the Asia-Pacific region to exchange views and reach consensus in a spirit of honesty and frankness. Such dialogues should also take place at the political level. The author believes that the dialogues should not stop at one or two meetings a year, but should be followed by the establishment of specific executive working groups responsible for the implementation of the dialogue and the provision of information on issues such as intelligence and logistics to be shared among the countries. For crisis situations, countries also need to discuss and conduct combat drills in advance.
The final point, which I think is most worthy of consideration by outsiders, is also one of the most important arguments put forward by the author. In his view, to counterbalance Chinese power, the Indo-Pacific countries must be willing to pay a price and endure short periods of pain. This requires the political will of the leaders. This is very important because international politics sometimes depends not only on national strength but on the political will of leaders. Also in the Indo-Pacific region, in the face of China’s offensive, Australia and New Zealand’s policies are very different. Australia is willing to pay a price in the face of the economic sanctions imposed by the Chinese Communist Party rather than give up its insistence on its national interests and values. New Zealand, on the other hand, has clearly abandoned some of its principles in order to reap economic dividends from China. Therefore, the attitude of the political leaders of the Indo-Pacific countries is also very important.
Finally, the author tells a short story in the book which I think provides food for thought: When Vietnamese and Chinese naval defense vessels vied and clashed with each other over oil and gas exploration rights in the South China Sea off the coast of Vietnam, a Vietnamese diplomat was asked a series of questions during a meeting with foreign scholars. If his country goes to war with China tomorrow, who will come to its assistance? “The answer to that is simple,” the diplomat calmly replied, “the Vietnamese people.” I think this is the best way for countries in the Asia-Pacific region to defend themselves.
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