Dialogue China BriefingAbout China TodayNovember 15th, 2023 – Issue 143Topics in This IssueThe articles translated here do not necessarily reflect the views of Dialogue China Briefing or Dialogue China. Feature StoryThe Three Reasons for China’s Intervention in Middle Eastern Affairs Policy/Politics (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall)Is the Deified “Promotion Tournament” for Officials the Real Reason for China’s Economic Downturn?When Government Supervision Becomes an “Industry,” Cadres at Grassroots Levels Are Bound to SufferThe Impact of the Use of WeChat on the Authoritarian Construction of Rural Elites Finance and Business (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall)Can Chinese Tourists Save the World from Recession?Peak Season Property Sales Have Plummeted. Why Is It That After the Bailout, Nobody is Buying Homes? Feature Story The Three Reasons for China’s Intervention in Middle Eastern AffairsWang Dan – Radio Free Asia – October 16, 2023 On March 10, 2023, Wang Yi, a member of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party and director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office, presided over the closing ceremony of the Saudi–Iranian Dialogue in Beijing. The ceremony was attended by Saudi Minister of State and National Security Advisor Mr. Musaid Al Aiban as well as secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mr. Ali Shamkhani (Photo: Reuters)The surprise Hamas attack on Israel has led to another outbreak of a period of crisis in the Mideast. The situation is still developing, but after the start of the war, competition among the Great Powers has been centering around the Mideast, similar to a battlefield but without any smoke from gunpowder. It is worth noting that China, which has not been deeply involved in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict in the past, this time has adopted an unusually active role. First, China’s special envoy on Mideast issues, Mr. Zhai Jun, launched an intensive diplomatic campaign: from September 10 to 13, 2023, he made phone calls to seven high-ranking diplomats in different countries and international organizations, and on September 13, he met with the envoys of the Arab countries in China and the head of the representative office of the League of Arab States in China to talk about the Mideast situation. Thereafter, on September 14, a higher-level representative, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, formally proposed a “two-state solution” to the Israel–Palestine conflict and supported the establishment of an independent state of Palestine. Wang Yi, in contrast to the position of Western countries, led by the United States, in support of Israel, refused to condemn the Hamas terrorist attack. From this series of actions, China has shown that its intention is to actively intervene in Middle Eastern issues. In fact, before the latest outbreak of the Israel–Palestine conflict, China had already begun to intervene in Mideast affairs. In addition to China’s surprising intervention in March of this year, when it facilitated the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, in what is less known to outsiders, Mr. Zhai Jun, the Chinese special envoy to the Mideast,  has been in frequent contact with Israel, the Palestinian Authority government that controls West Bank, the Arab League, and the European Union during the past year to discuss a two-state solution and UN recognition of the Palestinians. There are three main reasons why China has become so active in the Mideast: China’s first objective is to move beyond Asia and expand its global influence. This is consistent with China’s top diplomatic priority since the 20th National Party Congress in 2022. In recent years, Xi Jinping has issued a variety of statements and put forward initiatives on the “Community of Common Destiny for Mankind” to create a basis in public opinion for such an expansion. With such a tone, China’s increased involvement in previously unfamiliar areas, such as the Middle East, can be viewed as an exercise, or the beginning, of its global expansion. The second objective is to weaken the global influence of the United States. Given that Middle Eastern affairs were dominated by the United States in the past, China’s ability to penetrate the Mideast with its own influence could constitute a challenge to the United States. In addition, Israel is the most important ally of the United States in the Mideast, and in terms of international diplomacy, attacking Israel can be seen as an attack on the United States. This is also the reason, even though China knows that Israel will never accept a “two-state solution,” China still promotes such a solution in a big way. The third objective is to further strengthen strategic cooperation with Iran. Although the United States has announced that there is no evidence that Iran is behind the Israel–Palestine conflict, Iran’s open support for Hamas is not a secret. In recent years, China has been actively establishing alliances with Russia, North Korea, Iran, and other countries in an attempt to separate itself from the Western bloc. By intervening in Middle Eastern issues, it can further win over Iran, its main ally. As a major power, it is understandable that China hopes to have international influence and participate in the coordination of international affairs. But as an authoritarian country, China’s expansion should be greeted with alarm. This is because China’s proposed “new international order” is contrary to the universal values that are the foundation of modern civilization. “China’s means of expanding its power often violate the established rules of the international community, as in the case of the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait,” said Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong Shyun Tsai at an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, on September 13, 2023. He added that China is seeking to use its growing influence without putting pressure on other countries and undermining their interests, otherwise Beijing will face backlash and resistance. In this author’s view, this reminder from Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong Shyun Tsai is not only targeted at China’s expansion in Asia but also applies to China’s involvement in the Mideast. In other words, it is not difficult to speculate that China will make use of the current conflict to further strengthen its role in the Mideast, and I am not very optimistic about the outcome.Policy/Politics (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall) Is the Deified “Promotion Tournament” for Officials the Real Reason for China’s Economic Downturn?Lu Ming – Comparative Economic and Social Systems – October 6, 2023 The relationship between local economic growth and the appraisal and promotion of officials is not inevitable, and it may conflict with the goal of achieving high-quality development (Web Image)Summary: The logic of China’s economic growth and development has attracted much attention, with some arguing that the appraisal and promotion system for local officials is favorable to economic growth. However, this article emphasizes that high-quality also includes long-term, global, and multidimensional objectives. Whether or not the appraisal system is favorable to development should depend on whether it contributes to high-quality development. The relationship between local economic growth and the promotion system of officials is not a given, and it may conflict with the goal of high-quality development, especially as China’s economy becomes more centralized. Future governance should take into account near-, medium-, and long-term reforms, focusing on reform incentives, central coordination, building a unified market, and clarifying the relationship and responsibilities among central and local powers, as well as resolving the issue of soft budget constraints. Finally, the author calls for facing up to the characteristics and institutional and structural problems during China’s transition period and objectively evaluating their impact on China’s development so as to achieve more development opportunities.（Read The Original Text）Policy/Politics (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall) When Government Supervision Becomes an “Industry,” Cadres at Grassroots Levels Are Bound to SufferLu Dewen – Xin Xiangtu – October 8, 2023Grassroots governments adopted overly strict straw-burning bans in response to environmental inspections (Web Image)Summary: This article discusses the prevalence and implications of oversight of grassroots work in China. Rampant supervision: The increase in the number of supervisory forces has made the work of grassroots governments more regulated, but it has also led to an excess of supervision, such as the overly strict straw-burning ban adopted by grassroots governments in response to the environmental inspections. Supervision becomes an industry: The demand for oversight has given rise to an industry of supervision, including technical oversight, media oversight, and third-party oversight. The organizations and companies that provide oversight services for the government make oversight more complex and more difficult to deal with. Seriously “coping with oversight”: In the face of oversight, grassroots governments and officials are more focused on coping with oversight rather than on solving problems. Because supervision may be impractical or too rigid, grassroots officials tend to follow the supervision requirements rather than reflecting on the actual situation. This leads to a culture of coping with supervision, which may not necessarily help to solve the problems.（Read The Original Text）Policy/Politics (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall) The Impact of the Use of WeChat on the Authoritarian Construction of Rural ElitesSun Xiru, Zhao Yajing – Journal of Ethnic Studies – October 14, 2023 In the context of the digital era, rural elites are being transformed by the influence of the mobile Internet (Photo: New York Times)Summary: In the context of the digital era, rural elites are being transformed by the influence of the mobile Internet. Looking at a traditional Bai village in Yunnan, China, as a case study, this article examines the WeChat life of rural elite. The study finds that elite identity and consciousness endow the rural elite with a certain uniqueness in terms of their use of technology and that WeChat is exerting a new influence and is playing a new role in the establishment of authoritarianism among rural elites. Specifically, through the active use of WeChat technology, rural elites have formed a new way of building up authoritarianism by consolidating symbolic resources, expanding networks of social relations, and stimulating participation in public life. The article attempts to explore the ways in which WeChat and authoritarian identities are constructed from the perspective of the new media technology as well as the important impact and significance that such technology brings to rural society.（Read The Original Text）Finance and Business (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall) Can Chinese Tourists Save the World from a Recession?Jin Yan – Caijing Magazine – October 4, 2023Rising prices and rising airfares are common cost considerations for Chinese tourists traveling abroad (Photo: Caijing Magazine)Summary: Thailand is the first country to benefit from China’s extended Golden Week. The Thai government announced that it would grant visa-free access for Chinese tourists from September 25 of this year to February of next year, attracting more than 22,000 tourists to China in October, while about 650,000 Chinese tourists booked trips to Thailand. This policy is expected to bring Thailand about US$ 3.8 billion in tourism revenue, which is crucial to the country’s tourism industry that accounts for nearly 20 percent of GDP. Other Southeast Asian countries are also attracting Chinese tourists as the recovery of tourism can be considered part of an economic stimulus. However, global tourism continues to be overshadowed by the Covid-19 epidemic, which is affecting the economies of countries in the Asia-Pacific region as well as in the Western hemisphere. The Chinese economy, while facing new challenges, is gradually improving through policy initiatives and a rebound in demand for domestic travel. The Chinese government has also introduced a series of measures to promote inbound tourism, including improving the efficiency of visa processing, expanding air routes, optimizing the tax refund policy, and so forth, to attract more overseas tourists.（Read The Original Text）Finance and Business (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall) Peak Season Property Sales Have Plummeted. Why Is It That After the Bailout, Nobody is Buying Homes?Xie Jiu – Sanlian Life Weekly – October 11, 2023 In recent years, China has undergone rapid development, resulting in an oversupply of housing, with the average number of housing units per household approaching two, much higher than the average number in the developed countries (Photo: Visual China Group)Summary: Although the recent National Day holiday was the peak selling season for China’s property market, the performance of the property market remained weak. According to data, the area of average daily transactions in 35 representative cities during the National Day period dropped by about 20 percent compared with that in the last year. In addition, this year’s “Golden Nine and Silver Ten,” i.e., peak consumption and construction period, was not as satisfactory as it could have been, with transactions in first-tier cities falling by more than 30 percent year on year and transactions in second- and third-tier cities dropping by more than 20 percent. This indicates that China’s property market is facing an oversupply problem, and the rescue policies of the past are no longer effective. In recent years, China has experienced rapid development, resulting in an oversupply of housing, with the average number of housing units per household approaching two, much higher than the average number in the developed countries. At the same time, a declining and aging population has further reduced the demand for housing. Although the government has implemented a series of policies to rescue the housing market, inventory remains high and housing prices continue to fall. The outlook for China’s property market is not optimistic, the bailout is no longer effective, supply and demand have changed significantly, and market confidence has been shaken.（Read The Original Text）

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