Briefing #136: The Four Lessons from HK’s Loss of Freedom

Dialogue China BriefingAbout China TodayAugust 1st, 2023 – Issue 136In This IssueThe articles translated here do not necessarily reflect the views of Dialogue China Briefing or Dialogue China.
Feature Story:The Four Important Lessons to Be Drawn from Hong Kong’s Loss of Freedom

Policy/Politics (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall):From the “People of China” to the “Chinese People” in the Shaping of Socialism

Finance and Business (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall):What Are the Difficulties Facing Youth Employment? What Can Be Done?

Why Has the Pursuit of “Relaxation and Stability” Become a Spiritual Opiate for Young People?

Reasons for the “Unceasing Fall” of the Chinese Yuan and Forecasts for When the Fall Will Stop

What Does the Lack of Rising Housing Prices Reveal About the State of the Chinese Economy?

Feature Story
The Four Important Lessons to Be Drawn from Hong Kong’s Loss of FreedomWang Dan – Radio Free Asia Commentary – July 5, 2023

Tourists Viewing Victoria Harbor in Hong Kong, June 28, 2023. (Reuters)July 1, 2023, was the 26th anniversary of the return of Hong Kong sovereignty to China. It was also the third anniversary of the crushing of human rights in Hong Kong due to implementation of the draconian National Security Law. Today, Hong Kong no longer has democracy, rule of law, and the freedoms that it used to enjoy. According to statistics, since implementation of the National Security Law three years ago, at least 1,500 political prisoners have been imprisoned, half of whom are under the age of 25. It can be said that Hong Kong has become a stagnant swamp of human rights. From venerating the rule of law, economic prosperity, and a large degree of individual freedoms for its people to the tragic situation we are seeing today, we certainly should criticize the autocratic rule of the Communist Party of China (CCP). However, at the same time, when we look back on the path that Hong Kong has taken over the past few decades, I think that there are four major lessons to be learned that call for serious reflection and introspection by the people of Hong Kong as well as by all people of the free world:

First, Hong Kong people, especially those in the democracy movement, were too gullible in believing the promises made by the CCP after the Sino-British talks on the future of Hong Kong that began in 1984. After 1997, the candlelight vigil to commemorate the June 4, 1989, Tiananmen Massacre was held annually in Hong Kong’s Victoria Park as usual, and freedom of the press was maintained. But Hong Kong people paid too much attention to the “one country, two systems” and they paid insufficient attention to the gradual self-censorship of the media, the increased infiltration of society by the CCP, the intensive ideological warfare, and the other ongoing negative changes. This is a good lesson for the people of Hong Kong. They relaxed their vigilance and now developments that they could not have imagined have come to pass. Facts have proven that for the CCP, it is really all about the political system, and just because of its pleasant-sounding verbal promises we must not forget the true nature of the totalitarian regime.

Second, the people of Hong Kong were, to a certain extent, overly confident. While hundreds of thousands, or millions, of people took to the streets to defend Hong Kong’s freedoms, many forgot or underestimated two things: 1.) Although there were many protesters in Hong Kong, there were also many loyalist supporters of the Hong Kong government who supported the CCP, and without the latter’s support, it would have been very difficult for the Communist Party to quell the protest movement in Hong Kong, and 2.) Even though there were protests, the internal cohesion of the protesters was insufficient. Before 2019, there were clashes between the younger generation and the pro-democracy camp. The Student Union of the University of Hong Kong organized their own June 4 candlelight vigil, then went as far as to oppose any commemoration of the Tiananmen Massacre. What was the result? Now, such a commemoration is no longer allowed anywhere in Hong Kong. In 2019 protesters began resisting the reduction in the number of directly elected Legislative Council seats, but it was already too late. This is a bitter lesson.

Third, we have placed too much hope on support from the international community. Facts have proven that this is an unrealistic fantasy. In view of the situation in Hong Kong, the international community will certainly show solidarity with the democracy movement and express condemnation of the hardline regime, but this will not be of much use. The Beijing massacre in 1989 shocked the world and led to international sanctions and solidarity. Although the international solidarity was much stronger at the time than it is today, it still was of little use. How much less use is such international solidarity today in the current Hong Kong situation? The international community will certainly spare no effort in matters of a humanitarian nature, such as taking in refugees and giving them political asylum, but it will be almost impossible for countries to break with the CCP for the sake of Hong Kong interests. For Hong Kong to have a future, Hong Kong people will need to rely on their own efforts!

The fourth lesson is that the free world, and especially Taiwan, should now realizes how the CCP was able to infiltrate and then take over Hong Kong step by step. This consisted of a set of well-planned practices, which included: 1) First agreeing to and maintaining for a certain period of time what appeared to be good terms for Hong Kong. 2) Partially permitting Hong Kong people to rule over Hong Kong by allowing a native Hong Kong resident to become the Chief Executive. 3) Digging deep into the soft local soil and subtly infiltrating without anyone realizing it. Attracting people to their side, luring them by promises of material gain, and letting fear spread slowly throughout society without provoking general alarm. 4) Attacking the pan-democrats. Blackening their reputations and polarizing the opposition so that it loses public respect and the “right to speak.” Sending agents provocateurs to enter the democratic camp, playing the role of radicals and jumping in to attack them at critical moments. 5) Fighting a war of perceptions, talking about overly idealistic but not pragmatic objectives, so that society will progressively be unable to distinguish between right and wrong, and 6) Focusing on key targets by striking the most steadfast anti-Communist forces and isolating them, such as Lam Wing-kee’s bookstore and others, and (7) finally, the coup de grace when all options were exhausted and the National Security Law was implemented; at this stage, it was already too late. This point is worthy of deep contemplation by the international community

We must continue to pay attention to Hong Kong precisely because the lessons learned in Hong Kong have come at such a heavy cost. Learning these lessons will not only help us recognize the essential nature of Xi Jinping’s regime but will also help Taiwan and the international community be on guard against the CCP’s next step. If we do not learn these hard lessons now, the free world will be nibbled to death by the CCP silkworm. Policy/Politics (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall)
From the “People of China” to the “Chinese People” in the Shaping of SocialismShao Liuyi – Open Times Magazine – June 27, 2023

There are 56 ethnic groups in China, of which 55 are non-Han Chinese with relatively small populations. They are customarily referred to as “ethnic minorities.” (chiculture.org.hk)Summary:
The question of identity in multi-ethnic states has always been a major concern in Chinese ethnic studies. In recent years, some scholars have put forward the idea of “culturalization,” which, different from traditional viewpoints, has triggered much discussion in academic circles. The author of this article believes that in the face of this series of debates, it is necessary to clarify the process by which the concept of the “Chinese people” was formed. In order to do this, the author reviews the political development from the “people of all ethnic groups in China” to the “Chinese people” that was realized during the period of socialist construction after the founding of New China, and discusses the “pluralistic unity” behind the concept of the “Chinese people,” emphasizing the importance of class identity in the current context where class issues are no longer the central contradiction but are still important in the process of constructing a unified multi-ethnic state and forging a common consciousness of the Chinese nation.（Read The Original Text）Finance and Business (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall)
What Are the Difficulties Facing Youth Employment? What Can Be Done?Jia Ming – Huxiu App – June 22, 2023

Large-scale on-site job fair for 2022 college graduates in Zunyi city, Guizhou province, China. (China News Service)Summary:
The youth employment situation is grim and the unemployment rate is rising. The causes of this phenomenon include short-term factors, such as the economic downturn, supply pressures, the impact of the pandemic, and import and export problems. To cope with this situation, the government should adopt the following measures. First, the education system should be reformed to be in accord with market demand and provide training in practical skills. Second, support should be given to small and medium-sized enterprises and the private sector to create more job opportunities. At the same time, market access should be relaxed to encourage innovation and entrepreneurship and to attract more investment. In addition, monetary policy tools should be improved to support economic growth and the job market. We need to emphasize a demand-driven approach to boost consumer confidence and spending to facilitate an economic recovery. However, we should also be alert to the problems that may come about due to an expansion of graduate school enrollment and the favoring of government positions so as to avoid any depreciation in the value of academic qualifications and distortions in employment. The most important thing is to stabilize the economy, support development of the private sector, and enhance the overall employment environment. It is only through a comprehensive approach that the youth employment difficulties can be effectively resolved and stable and sustainable employment growth can be realized.（Read The Original Text）Finance and Business (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall)
Why Has the Pursuit of “Relaxation and Stability” Become a Spiritual Opiate For Young People?Ouyang Yanqing – Sanlian Life Weekly – June 22, 2023

China’s “Four No’s For Young People”: No Love, No Marriage, No House, No Children. (Shutterstock)Summary:
This article, investigating the career development of rural youth, finds that not only rural children who do not attend school but also young people in ordinary high schools and colleges have misconceptions about their careers. During interviews, it was found that young people generally pursue “easy and stable” jobs and they lack any real career awareness. This tendency is due to the influence of family, school, and society, which leads them to have unrealistic fantasies about the job market and the future. This article emphasizes the importance of changing the academic system and cultivating the students’ vocational awareness, value exchange, and problem-solving skills to encourage the students to actively engage in practical work and gradually accumulate skills and workplace experience. The dreams of rural children for “relaxation and stability” come from wishes to escape past difficulties, but the changes in the real world mean that not everyone will be able to realize such dreams. Nevertheless, through hard work and bravery in the face of the real world, ordinary people can lead meaningful lives and achieve professional growth and success.（Read The Original Text）Finance and Business (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall)
Reasons for the “Unceasing Fall” of the Chinese Yuan and Forecasts for When the Fall Will StopQing Long – Golden House – July 3, 2023

For the first time in more than two years, the offshore and onshore Renminbi markets fell below the ¥7 to the US$1. (Shutterstock)Summary:
The exchange rate of the Chinese yuan has continued to fall against the US dollar, hitting a new low since last year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that interest rates may be raised again in July and September, which will further affect the exchange rate. The relationship between the exchange rate and the A-share index is influenced by a combination of economic expectations and US dollar liquidity expectations. The factors affecting the exchange rate are complex, with weaker trade being one of the main reasons. A weaker than expected recovery of domestic economic fundamentals and capital flows will also affect the exchange rate. Exchange rate volatility poses financial risks to corporations and financial institutions, so it is recommended that management capabilities be enhanced. As the internationalization of the RMB is important, the government should optimize the environment for cross-border RMB settlement. Looking to the future, there will be no intervention in the exchange rate over the short term, financial markets will become more open, and the tolerance of the People’s Bank of China for volatility will increase. Overall, the RMB will maintain a steady rate of appreciation over the long term.（Read The Original Text）Finance and Business (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall)
What Does the Lack of Rising Housing Prices Reveal About the State of the Chinese Economy?Cao Yuanzheng – Netease Finance and Business Think Tank – July 3, 2023

The Chinese economy is still recovering, but this recovery is insufficient to support overall economic growth; stabilizing employment is a core theme for this year. (IC)Summary:
China’s economy is facing three major challenges: a supply shock, lack of demand, and weakening expectations. Although the Chinese economy recovered from the impact of the pandemic, two new changes have been the slowdown in export growth and the difficulties in the real estate market, which pose new challenges to economic growth. China needs to rely on consumption growth to promote income growth and industrial restructuring, especially development of the service sector and provision of high-income jobs. It also needs to address youth unemployment problems and to promote the development of a low-carbon market. The Chinese economy is in a stage of transition and it must address these challenges and achieve sustainable development.（Read The Original Text）