Dialogue China BriefingAbout China TodayJune 15th, 2023 – Issue 133In This IssueThe articles translated here do not necessarily reflect the views of Dialogue China Briefing or Dialogue China. Feature Story:The Food Crisis Behind the Policy of Returning the Forests to Farmland Think Tank Opinion:What Would Become of the World If the Communists Were to Have Control Over the Most Intelligent Machine in History? Policy (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall):Cutting Down Trees and Returning the Forests to Farmland, Filling Ponds…. The Red Line to Protect 1.8 billion Acres of Arable Land Cannot Be Handled in a “Slipshod” Manner “Who Will Take Over From Whom?” The Deep Logic Behind the First Large-Scale Intergenerational Change of Officials in Contemporary China Politics (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall):Several Thoughts on Current International Relations Finance and Business (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall):China’s Temple Economy Is “Inexplicably Hot” Why Young Chinese Do Not Want or Do Not Dare to Have Children?  Feature Story The Food Crisis Behind the Policy of Returning the Forests to FarmlandWang Dan – Radio Free Asia – May 13, 2023 China is actively “returning the forests to farmland,” including razing a ¥34.1 billion greenway built around the city of Chengdu (China News Service)The Chinese government recently deployed a special operation of the 2023 national comprehensive agricultural administrative law to “stabilize food supply,” namely, it implemented a nationwide program of “returning the forests to farmland.” Overnight, many trees that had been planted under the policy of “returning farmland to the forests” were cleared, thus returning the forests to farmland. For example, Chengdu’s green belt built around the city that had cost tens of billions of yuan was razed flat. It is planned that this area will become 100,000 acres of farmland within three years. In addition, many “agricultural control” officers, assisted by local officials and police, have been sent to the fields to force farmers to no longer plant industrial and cash crops on their arable land and instead to plant grain. Based on videos circulating on social media, it appears that, against the farmers’ wishes, the non-food crops of local farmers throughout the country are being forcibly destroyed by farm control officials . For example, on April 23, 2023, police and agricultural control teams eradicated more than 6,000 acres of tobacco leaves in Nanning of Guangxi province. In addition, many industrial and cash crops, such as bamboo, fruit trees, and decorative flowers, were also razed, leading to substantial losses for the farmers. This current political campaign is based on a directive issued by the central government at the beginning of the year. On February 13, 2023, the central government issued Central Document Number One, stressing the importance of stable production and supply of grain and other critical agricultural products and firmly adhering to the “red line” of maintaining 1.8 billion acres of arable land. Some observers believe that the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war severely impacted the global food supply chain. Against this background, food security has once again become an important issue of concern for policy makers. In addition, because China’s relationship with the international community has been deteriorating in recent years, the widespread implementation of “returning the forests to farmland” may also be preparation for potential food shortages in the future. But will such an approach really work? I have serious doubts. I am afraid that the food crisis in China is more serious than the outside world believes, and it is entirely possible that at some point China will experience another famine. One of the reasons for this is that expansion of the area under cultivation will not solve the root cause of the problem. The problem is the system of resource allocation, which is not an agricultural problem but a political problem. According to Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen’s research on famines, famines in modern societies have not only been caused by food shortages, but more importantly they have been caused by injustices in the food distribution system, i.e., the lack of institutional protection of the people’s legitimate rights. While many famines did occur after a decline in food production, others occurred at the peak of food production, such as the 1974 famine in Bangladesh when food production was 13 percent higher than in the previous year and per capita food production was 5.3 percent higher. Local farmers were unable to sell their labor and obtain employment opportunities, resulting in a significant reduction in their ability to acquire food through transactions. It seems that the real issue is not whether there is an adequate supply of food but rather whether people have access to it. When people’s right to be free from hunger is not guaranteed, it does not matter how abundant the food supply is. Sen concludes that in modern history there has never been a case of famine in a democratic society with an independent opposition party and a free media, nor has there ever been a famine due to a lack of food. The second reason for the danger of a famine in China is that administrative interference in food production does not end well. American political scientist James C. Scott, in his renowned book Seeing Like a State, eloquently illustrates his thesis based on the failed precedents in Germany, the former Soviet Union, Brazil, Tanzania, and other countries where top-down state planning led to disaster. The most obvious examples are the 1932–33 Holdomor famine in Ukraine and the 1959–61 great famine in China, both of which were due to intervention by the Communist authorities using administrative measures to disrupt normal agricultural production. Furthermore, after the famines broke out, the officials continued to forcibly (through compulsory grain requisitions or preventing farmers from fleeing, etc.) hinder any self-help efforts by farmers. Based on the overly simplistic remedy of returning the forests to farmland, it can be seen that Xi Jinping’s approach to solving economic problems still takes the form of a mass movement. As in the various disasters during the Mao era that were the result of administrative interventions ignoring economic laws and basic human nature, this old way of thinking will greatly limit the Communist Party’s options when facing crises in the future.Think Tank Opinion What Would Become of the World if the Communists Were to Have Control Over the Most Intelligent Machine in History?Editorial Board – Dialogue China Briefing – June 15, 2023 An organic symbiosis of the world’s most terrifying totalitarian regime and the most effective mechanism for technological innovation in history based on a combination of political directives and private markets. Chinese police officers in Luoyang city of Henan sporting smart glasses. April 3, 2018 (Reuters)With the release of ChatGPT, a  new concept of Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is gradually entering political life. This is unlike the AI that can only operate under specific conditions. For example, AI that can play games cannot engage in face recognition. But Generative Artificial Intelligence is the best of AI, with a cross-disciplinary ability to solve any intelligent task better than humans, including, for example, designing the means of production. Once fully realized, Generative AI will be capable of completely eliminating the need for human intelligence, thus changing the underlying logic of the world and posing a fundamental challenge to human civilization. Because of this, there is a widely circulated saying in the field of philosophy of science and technology: “The first ultra intelligent machine is the last invention that humanity need ever make.” Because technology communities face the common dilemma of aligning machine programs with human values, the international AI community has called for a moratorium on the development of cutting-edge technology. The Chinese Communist Party, recognizing the risks of Generative AI, is committed to ensuring that it serves politics. At a meeting of the Politburo in late April 2023, Xi Jinping said: “We should pay attention to the development of Generative Artificial Intelligence, create an ecosystem for innovation, but at the same time take risk prevention into account.” This was the first time that Xi publicly addressed the issue. For the Chinese Communist Party, Generative AI poses a huge challenge. ChatGPT, the most advanced Generative AI application to date, is currently teaching anti-Communist tactics on the Internet, and even Baidu’s ERNIEbot, a domestic ChatGPT, refers to Taiwan as a “country.” A powerful Generative AI program – if it were to spiral out of control – could potentially subvert the CCP regime. The Communist Party has always been extremely fearful of public debate, and the political control of Generative AI is first and foremost about speech. Recently, a man in Pingliang City, Gansu, was arrested for using Generative AI technology to produce and disseminate news. In April 2023, the Cyberspace Administration of China released the “Management Measures for Generative Artificial Intelligence Services (Draft for Comments),” which explicitly require that use of Generative AI content “embody the core values of socialism and not contain content that subverts state authority, advocates overthrow of the socialist system, or incites secession.” It is required that the service provider of any application similar to ChatGPT be filed and approved by the Cyberspace Administration of China. A security assessment must also be conducted, with developers “tagging” the content, and netizens are encouraged take an initiative to report to officials if AI content “does not meet the requirements.” These administrative regulations even cover the database used for training algorithms. Such an action can be described as becoming “armed to the teeth” and providing political censorship of Generative AI at the source. China’s Internet regulators are ambivalent about Generative AI. On the one hand, they fear that Generative AI will subvert the regime. But on the other hand, they covet Generative AI’s importance in global technological competition, fearing that they might miss out on what is perhaps the most powerful technological tool in human history. The Communist Party thus appears as if it is training an untamed beast of prey. It has adopted a two-pronged carrot-and-stick approach: hoping that Generative AI will serve the regime but fearing that this technology will harm the party. The Chinese Communist Party seems to have found a governance model that encourages the development of cutting-edge technologies while also managing the risks. It incentivizes the market and academic forces to innovate through a free market approach. But it simultaneously constrains the market, requiring entrepreneurs and academics to serve the party’s political purposes and not overstep the invisible line of political correctness. This is not an easy political tightwire to navigate, but it is extremely alluring. Anyone who can achieve such goals will have a stake in the US$2 trillion global AI market. After all, promising large commercial returns to implement draconian political policies is a common Communist tactic. A Generative AI that is politically aligned with the goals of the Chinese Communist Party could, better than any human, help to implement everything from citizen surveillance to speech censorship. We can already see some hints of a combination of the Communist system and AI. The Communist Party has built a surveillance state in mainland China, and powerful AI algorithms will make it even more difficult for ordinary people to escape its tight encirclement. Speech censorship will also reach new heights as the technology is improved. It has been reported that a team at Tsinghua University is working to enhance the efficiency of Internet speech censorship by means of Human Feedback Reinforcement Learning (HFRL). A general-purpose AI program that “adheres to the leadership of the Communist Party” not only can effectively delete posts, but it can also create disinformation and misinformation far beyond the ordinary and seek the best channels to deliver society-wide propaganda and brainwashing. The already extremely narrow space for any freedom will be further tightened by the emerging technologies, making it ever more difficult for internal political and social resistance to survive. The Communist Party’s dominance skills fulfill its domestic objectives and they also help realize its international ambitions. China has announced attempts to build a global consensus on military AI, and Chinese teams are already working on how to use AI in the military. It can be said that everyone knows “what is in Sima Zhao’s mind” (meaning China’s hidden intentions are so well known that they are not hidden). In recent years, the party has interfered in overseas elections in traditional Western democracies, like Canada and Australia, and also in institutions of nascent democracies, such as in Taiwan and Africa, that are facing serious challenges. Moreover, AI technology has become the clear direction of future cooperation between China and authoritarian states such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. Thus, we can foresee a series of technologies developed by China in the future that will develop a global clientele of dictators and consolidate the systemic subjugation and oppression of the masses. Combining political directives and free-market incentives, the world’s most terrifying totalitarian regime and history’s most effective mechanism of technological innovation are currently undergoing an organic symbiosis. If combined with Generative AI, the Communist Party will pose an unprecedented threat not only to China but also to freedom and democracy throughout the world. The global community should be highly alert to this danger and take prompt action to limit the Communist Party’s efforts to develop Generative AI. The recent export restrictions on high-end computer microchips by the United States, Europe, and Japan will undermine the Communist Party’s AI hardware capabilities, but there are still many regulatory loopholes that need to be plugged up to prevent the Communist Party from launching its global penetration capabilities.  Therefore, the international community should also strengthen protection of talent, algorithms, and computing power. Taken together, Generative AI may be considered a great gift from the free world to the authoritarian governments. Thus it is time to guard against the Communist Party in the field of AI, especially Generative AI, so as not to feed it to a completely uncontrollable beast.Policy (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall) Cutting Down Trees and Returning the Forests to Farmland, Filling Ponds…. The Red Line for Protecting 1.8 Billion Acres of Arable Land Cannot Be Handled in a “Slipshod” MannerHe Haibo – Bottom Line Thinking – May 11, 2023 Technology, serving humanity, should serve the people. (Getty Images)Summary: Recently, the Internet has been buzzing about the plan of a provincial capital city in central China to turn a 100-kilometer-long ecological park encircling the city into 100,000 acres of cultivated land. Netizens have calculated a cost-benefit analysis: the park cost ¥34.1 billion and 100,000 acres of rice can earn ¥77 million per year. Hence it will take 442.8 years to make up for the cost of the park. Such economic accounting has angered many people. How can the government become involved in such a loss-making deal and do such a “unintelligent” thing? First, such an action contradicts any common sense about natural conditions. Second, it violates any common sense about economics. Finally, it is contrary to common sense about the farmers’ lives. Technology should serve humanity, but even more so it should serve the people. The interests of the people should be the ultimate goal of the development and application of technology. In any policy planning this should never be forgotten.（Read The Original Text）Policy (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall) “Who Will Take Over From Whom?” The Deep Logic Behind the First Large-Scale Intergenerational Change of Officials in Contemporary ChinaLin Rongrong – Theory and Reform – May 10, 2023 A worker walks past a banner extolling Chinese leader Xi Jinping at a hotel press center during the 20th Communist Party Congress. October 19, 2022 (Reuters)Summary: In recent years, many young cadres of the“post-1985” and “post-1990” generations have taken up important positions in local Communist Party and government departments. Even some renowned university graduates with masters’ and doctorate degrees have directly taken local positions. This article analyzes three issues: 1.) How revolutionary elites exit from the political arena; 2.) The selection criteria for the “four standards for leading cadres,” emphasizing those who are revolutionary, young, knowledgeable, and professional; and 3.) How to address the problems of selecting and sourcing quality cadres, Although the “four standards for leading cadres” do not explicitly define the professional education backgrounds or professional work experience of cadres, the final selection is dominated by professional and technical talent because of the high proportion of students who have graduated from science and technology colleges and universities after the founding of New China. The author believes that although the challenge of sourcing quality cadres is stage-specific and unique, and the selection criteria vary with changes in circumstances and tasks, the basic core of virtue, talent, and the “four standards for leading cadres” provide a stable foundation for cadre selection and development. （Read The Original Text）Politics (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall) Several Thoughts on Current International RelationsLong Yongtu – Political Science and International Relations Forum – May 9, 2023 Long Yongtu, Chairman of CCG (China Center for International Economic Exchanges), former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, and former Secretary-General of the Boao Forum for Asia. (ccg.org.cn)Summary: This article shares the author’s thoughts on current international relations from three perspectives: the basic characteristics of the current international situation, the problems of globalization, and U.S.-China relations. Reducing uncertainties in the current international situation starts with implementation of the results of head-of-state diplomacy. China should maintain openness to the outside world and market as well as to rules-based globalization. This kind of globalization will definitely win over values-based globalization. As for the relationship between China and the United States, the author believes that it already is an inseparable relationship of co-dependence – “in you there is me and in me there is you” – and he is optimistic about the basis and prospects for improving the relationship. The most important things for China to do are: 1.) allow the economy to continue to develop and the society to remain stable; and 2.) maintain openness.（Read The Original Text）Finance and Business (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall) China’s Temple Economy Is “Inexplicably Hot”Jia Mengya – Southern Weekend – May 12, 2023 A young girl praying for blessings at the Yonghe Buddhist Temple in Beijing. (Visual China)Summary: The person in charge of the Nuona Patriarch Pagoda, located on Lu Mountain in Jiujiang City of Jiangxi, believes that temples need to be self-supporting and self-sufficient. Whether for temple construction and maintenance, training and research activities, or daily expenses such as water and electricity, all expenses must be self-financed. Because temples require funding, they of course must organize fundraising activities. “As long as they do not violate Buddhist religious doctrine, this is reasonable.” Due to the fever of “temple tourism,” demand exceeds supply of cultural creative products and Buddhist religious paraphernalia. Religious objects, including the eighteen bead bracelets from Lingyin Temple in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, incense ash–glazed glass bracelets from Beijing’s Yonghe Temple, and mother coins from God of Wealth temples, have all become popular items among young people. There are also meditation camps at the Big Buddha Temple in Guangzhou. To relieve their anxiety, many young people, who saw on the Internet that the Big Buddha Temple is recruiting volunteers and students for its meditation camps signed up. It is reported that the relationship between masters and apprentices at the temple is very cordial and warm, allowing the young people, even if they have no job or place to live, to feel that they still have their faith to fall back on.（Read The Original Text）Finance and Business (Public Opinion within the Great Firewall) Why Young Chinese Do Not Want or Do Not Dare to Have Children?Liu Peiwen – Journal of Xi’an University of Finance and Economics – May 15, 2023 For more than 40 years, China has relied on its large and inexpensive demographic dividend to drive economic growth (Agence France-Presse)Summary: Like the developed countries that have become aging societies in recent decades, China too has not escaped the impact of an aging population. Among China’s 31 provinces, more than 7 percent of the population of 30 provinces is aged 65 or over. For the short term, young people postponing childbirth in order to save up to purchase a house is causing the fertility rate to drop. For the long term, the high mortgage payments that young people must shoulder after purchasing a house is causing the cost of child-rearing to rise. Young people are less likely to have children, resulting in a lower fertility rate. The author recommends: 1.) The state should continue to strengthen control and regulation of the prices of commercial housing. 2.) Relevant laws and policies should be implemented to re-plan and develop the rental housing market. 3.) Equitable distribution of educational resources should be promoted. 4.) Preferential policies for attracting talent should be put in place, and 5.) Real estate speculation should be discouraged.（Read The Original Text）

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