Editorial
1. A New Axis Power Alliance is Taking Shape
Wang Dan – Apple Daily Op-Ed – April 14, 2021
Historically, “Axis Powers” refers to the military alliance between Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and Fascist Italy during World War II. History occasionally surprises us. Today a new “Axis Power” alliance is gradually taking shape.
At the beginning of April, 2021, the escalation of military tension in Ukraine reminded us that the threat of military conflict is increasing all over the world. After Russia’s President Vladimir Putin changed the constitution so he could remain in power for life, it became clear that Ukraine was a central target in his blueprint to resurrect Russia as an imperial power. The United States understands this development very well. On April 5, 2021, the US Cabinet publicly warned Russia that if it did not stop threatening Ukraine, the United States was prepared to intervene. Then Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister appeared in public and strongly expressed that Russia was not concerned by the Western countries’ threat. German Russia military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer already predicted that “The Ukraine crisis could escalate into a new European war.” In fact, once hostilities break out, the trend of expansion will be unstoppable because both sides will seek the support of allies. For Russia, the ready-made ally is China.
Between Russia and China – in addition to the fact that the leaders of both countries have expanding national objectives and personal ambitions to stay in power for life – the two countries already have shared strategic interests. China wants to strengthen its economic ties with Russia as a counterbalance to Western influence. Russia wants the same thing. Although historically there is a lack of trust between Russia and China, they face the same adversary – the United States-led Western alliance – and will stand together even if they must “sleep in the same bed, but have different dreams.” This scenario previously existed during World War II. The groundwork for a Russia-China alliance is already underway. Not long ago, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg pointed out that – in a pattern of “strategic competition heating up” due to the Arctic ice melting – in addition to Russia’s accelerated military deployment in the Arctic, China has declared itself a “near-Arctic country” and is actively increasing its military operations there. Russia and China have joined forces to confront NATO, further strengthening the alliance between the two countries.
Another member of the new “Axis Power Alliance” – with Russia and China at its core – is Iran. In addition to Russia’s long-standing diplomatic support, China has recently strengthened its ties with Iran. On March 27, 2021, China and Iran signed a comprehensive economic and security agreement that will see Beijing invest US$400 billion in Iran over the next 25 years in exchange for a steady supply of oil. This not only allows Iran to be less concerned about Western economic sanctions, but also allows China to begin preparing for the risk of oil supply shortages if military operations are conducted in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait. At a time when Biden is trying to bring Iran back to the nuclear negotiating table, China is clearly demonstrating its newfound influence to the United States with this action.
Another important new member of the “Axis Power Alliance” is, of course, North Korea. New North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) leader Air Force General Glen D. VanHerck warned the Senate Armed Services Committee before Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s March 2021 visit to South Korea that North Korea could resume intercontinental ballistic missile tests after a three-year hiatus. VanHerck’s warning came after North Korea unveiled new intercontinental ballistic missiles at a military parade last October. VanHerck worries that North Korea’s larger and more powerful intercontinental ballistic missiles have further increased the threat to the United States. North Korea may not dare to challenge the United States alone, but North Korea, China, Russia and Iran joining together in alliance against the United States is not hard to imagine.
China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – all four of which have nuclear weapons capabilities –along with other potential member states such as Burma, Venezuela, Cuba, and Pakistan, make this new Axis Power Alliance strong enough to challenge the Western alliance led by the United States. It is not yet possible to judge whether World War III will break out, but a pattern of military confrontation that could lead to a new world war is taking shape, and that is alarming enough.
More importantly, if we look back at the history of the Axis Power alliance during World War II, we can see clearly that Britain and France’s policy of appeasement paved the way for the establishment and expansion of the Axis Power alliance. In my opinion, this is presently the most urgent historical lesson for Western countries to consider.
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